基于复杂网络的京津冀产业关联对比

Comparative Research on Industrial Relationship of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on Complex Network Theory

本文基于复杂网络的理论方法,采用2012年投入产出表数据构建了京津冀三地产业复杂网络模型,提出了从整体结构和个体特征两个方面进行产业关联研究的指标体系,并对三地产业做了实证和比较分析。结果显示,京津冀三地产业结构具有一定同构性,其中,京津相似度达到60%,京冀和津冀也达到50%。服务业与高端制造业是北京的经济发展支柱,服务业对北京地区经济的综合影响是工业综合影响的1.3倍;以能源化工业和高端制造业为主的工业和服务业是天津经济发展的两大引擎,其中,天津高端制造业对天津地区经济影响是北京高端制造业对北京地区经济影响的近1.5倍,而服务业综合影响仅为北京的64%;冶金与制造相关产业在河北经济发展中发挥着主导作用,采掘与冶金类产业对河北经济的综合影响是北京、天津对各自地区经济影响之和的2.1倍,而服务业发展比较滞后。最后,本文根据研究结论从发挥三地产业发展优势,构建三地一体化的产业价值链以实现三地协同发展的角度提出了相关政策建议。

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the third largest economic zone which behind the Yangtze river delta region and the pearl river delta region in China, and gradually become the new growth pole for economic develop- ment. How to promote the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has be listed as a national priority de- velopment strategy by the government, in order to achieve this goal, the optimization of industrial structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and realizing the coordinated development of industry is one of the most impor- tant. Industry Complex Network Model is a network model which considers the economic activity of all industry as a system, and builds the model according to the relationship between various industries based on the theory of graph and network. In this paper, we established industry complex network model of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using in- put-output table in 2012 based on Complex Network Theory, and put forward index system of industrial association studies from two aspects of overall structure and the individual characteristics, then we made the empirical and com- parative analysis of three areas. Results show that the industrial structure of three areas has some homogeneity, but there are obvious differences in Hebei. Beijing and Tianjin are the regional core city, High-end manufacturing, high- end service and other related industry plays a backbone role in the network, and these areas are not ripe for basic industries for the scarcity of land resources endowment and high cost of human, the upstream industry chain is shor- ter and the industry association is primarily a structural impact directly in these areas; Hebei province has large population which relies more on heavy industry development for a long time, the industry chain is longer and the in- dustry association is primarily a structural impact indirectly there~ Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei can make use of their advantages industry to realize differentiating complement, and forming a nearly perfect industry ＂smiling curve＂ ~ Beijing＇ s Service Industry and Advanced Manufacturing is a pillar of economic development, the effect of Service Industry is more apparent. The Industrial Relationship of Tianjin is similar with Beijing, but Industry is more devel- oped ,but the development of Information Industry, Science and Technology Service Industry is relatively back- ward. Metallurgy and Manufacturing industry plays a leading role in the economic development in Hebei, the Service Industry development lags behind~ Finally, we put forward relevant suggestions for realizing the coordinated develop- ment of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the integration of industry value chain~ This paper argues that the in- dustrial structure and the distribution of key industries of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have certain similarities, the similarity of Beijing and Tianjin is very high, so they should take industrial integrative integration, and avoid homo- geneity competition; Hebei has a complete industrial system and the heavy industry such as steel is developed, so Hebei can reinforce the defects in the basic industry of Beijing and Tianjin, on the other hand, the development de- gree of Hebei is very uneven, some emerging high-end manufacturing industries of Hebei still need further develop- ment and is in urgent need of technical and resource support of Beijing and Tianjin. The key to realize the coordina- ted development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is eliminate the barriers of administrative division and build the integrative industry value chain which make high-end service and finance industry as the leader, establish the sci- ence and technology service industry as the engine and build the manufacturing and agriculture industries as the foundation. Tianjin can take over the factories of high-end manufacturing industry in Beijing. Hebei can take over the factories of chemical and light industry of Beijing and Tianjin and eliminate the backward production under the economic and technical support of Beijing and Tianjin. Based on the above conclusion, this the paper put forward relevant policy suggestions respectively from three aspects of agriculture, industry and services industries.