中国省域环境污染事故的时空热点模式及演化

Spatial-temporal hotspot model and evolution characteristics of China environmental pollution incidents

随着工业化和城市化的快速推进,我国进入了环境污染事故的频发期,如何预防和减缓事故的发生是中国经济转型发展过程中的一大挑战.论文以1995年~2013年的省域环境污染事故为研究对象,利用ESDA的G指数分析方法和改进的污染事故热点模型IPAI指数探讨事件发生的空间集聚特征和时空热点模式,结果发现：1）环境污染事故总体呈先动态增长后逐渐下降再小幅增加的趋势,全局G指数由1995年的0.05在波动变化过程中逐渐增加到2013年的0.08,说明环境污染事故的空间集聚程度在增强;2）局域G＊i（d）指数表明环境污染事故的空间集聚主要在东部沿海的泛长三角和西南方向的泛珠三角地区,不同经济发展时期污染事件的集聚方向和热点区域有转移的态势;热点省区,在2000年转向泛珠三角及西南地区,到了2006年又开始向湖北、江西等中部省区转移,2007年~2013年间则集聚于长三角地区,热点区域的转移跟国家大的发展战略或产业升级转移等策略有关;3）利用改进的IPAI指数对省域尺度的事故热点模式进行了划分,其中稳定的热点区包括布局型、转移型和粗放增长型3个主要区域表现形式,建议重点防控环境污染事故的稳定热点省区、加强不稳定热点省区的事故应急、注重冷点省区的环境监测和执法,并做好区域的多层级环境污染（事故）联防联控.

China＇s extensive development and modernization process result in various environmental pollution incidents.How to prevent and slow down the occurrence of these incidents is becoming a big challenge in the period of China＇s economic transition.In this study,we analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of environmental pollution incidents were analyzed in China from 1995 to 2013based on Spatial Getis-Ord statistic and Improved Prediction Accuracy Index（IAPI）.The results showed as follows：（1）Overall,the number of environmental incidents exhibited a dynamic growth while reduced after the year 2006 and then continued to lowly increase after 2010.The General G index changed from 0.05 in 1995to 0.08 in 2013during the fluctuation,indicating the spatial agglomeration degree of environmental pollution accidents was increasing.（2）Local Getis-Ord G＊iindex showed that spatial concentration of pollution incidents mainly took place in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta at the eastern coast of China and of Pan-pearl River delta at the Southwest of China.The agglomeration direction and hotspots of environmental pollution accidents in different economic development periods had a transfer momentum.Environmental pollution accidents＇hot provinces appeared at the Pan-Yangtze River Delta and the Southwest area in 2000.Then it has been transferring to the central provinces such as Hubei and Jiangxi since 2006,and gathering in Yangtze River Delta area from 2007 to 2013.This phenomenon might be concerned with the country＇s macro development or industrial upgrading strategies.（3）The improved IPAIindex was used to divide the provincial accident hotspot mode,where stable hotspots included three main forms as layout type,transfer type and extensive growth type.It＇s proposed that related departments should focus on preventing and controlling environmental pollution accidents＇stable hotspot provinces.Strengthening accident emergency unstable hotspots provinces is also required as well as paying attention to cold-spots provinces＇environmental monitoring and enforcement.In addition,it is necessary to enhance multi-level prevention and control of environmental pollution accidents.