美国技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响——基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

Impact of American Technical Barriers to Trade on China's Export——Based on Empirical Research with Trade Gravity Model

本文选取我国和美国GDP、人民币汇率、美国对华直接投资、金融危机、滞后一期的美国TBT通报量、滞后一期的我国对美国出口额构建贸易引力模型,实证分析美国技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易具有较强的负面影响,滞后一期的美国TBT通报量的对数每上升1个百分点,我国对美国出口额的对数就减少0.1775个百分点。最后从正面突破和侧面规避两个角度提出相关应对策略。

This article chooses Chinese and American GDP , exchange rate of RMB , American direct investment in China , finan-cial crisis , the number of American TBT notification lag one year , the exports lag one year , to establish a Trade Gravity Model to make an empirical analysis on the impact of American Technical Barriers to Trade on China＇s export . The result indicates that American Technical Barriers to Trade performs negative effect on China＇s export . The logarithm of TBT notification numbers submitted by America lag one year increases by one percentage point , then , the logarithm of China＇s exports will decrease by 0.1775 percentage point . Finally , it puts for-ward some related countermeasures from front and side aspects .