国际油价冲击与中国的经济增长——基于非对称关系视角的分析

The International Oil Price Shocks and China's Economic Growth——An Analysis Based on Perspective of Asymmetric Relationship

本文基于季度数据,引入非对称协整模型,考察国际油价与中国经济增长的动态关系,并鉴于油价波动对不发达经济体可能的冲击,还测度了油价的不确定性并探析其对经济增长的影响,结果表明:(1)从短期来看,国际油价变化是国内经济增长的单向Granger原因,"中国因素"对全球油价变化的影响尚不明显;(2)从长期来看,国际油价和经济增长具有非对称协整关系,油价上涨对经济的影响明显大于油价下跌所产生的效应;(3)国际石油市场存在正反馈交易行为,导致油价波动在油价上涨时表现更加明显。油价不确定性在短期内对经济增长存在负面影响,长期中则不会显著影响经济增长。以上结果意味着必须高度重视石油安全问题,加强油价波动预警与风险管理系统。

Based on the quarterly data ,we explore the dynamic relationship between international oil price shocks and China＇s eco-nomic growth using asymmetric cointegration model . And in view of the impact of oil price fluctuations on less developed economies , we al-so measures the oil price uncertainty and analyze its impact on economic growth , the results show that ：（1） in the short term , the interna-tional oil price change is a one-way Granger cause of domestic economic growth , and the impact of “China factor” on the international oil price is not obvious ;（2 ） in the long run , there exists asymmetric cointegration relationship between international oil prices and economic growth , the rising oil prices＇impact on domestic economy is significantly stronger than the effect of falling oil prices ;（3 ） there exists posi-tive feedback trading behavior in the international oil market , the oil price uncertainty has a negative effect on economic growth in the short run , but will not significantly affect economic growth in the long term . These results mean that we must attach great importance to the oil security problem , and strengthen the oil price fluctuation early warning and risk management system .