宁镇扬丘陵区土地利用景观格局演变与模拟

Evolution and simulation of land-use landscape pattern in Ning-Zhen-Yang hilly area

针对CA模型不能长期预测和Markov模型不能反映空间格局变化的不足,本文运用CA-Markov耦合模型,结合动态度模型、景观格局指数及PCA法,定量揭示宁镇扬丘陵区镇江市的土地利用景观格局演变特征、驱动机制及变化趋势,为区域土地利用规划及调整提供参考。结果表明:镇江市土地利用景观格局时空演变愈加复杂;人口增长、经济发展、城镇化及农业技术进步是土地利用景观格局演变的主要驱动力;到2030年镇江市城区周边建设用地将增加25.58%,而耕地、林地等景观类型将不断锐减。

Aiming at the problem that CA model could not long-term predict and Markov model could not reflect the spatial pattern change, the paper used CA-Markov coupled mode, combined with the land- scape pattern index, dynamic model and PCA method to quantitatively reveal the landscape pattern evolu- tion characteristics and the trend of simulation in Zhenjiang city, so as to provide a reference for regional land use planning and adjustment. Results showed that. land use landscape time-space pattern evolution were increasingly complex; population growth, economic development, urbanization and agricultural technology progress together drove the landscape pattern evolution; by 2030, the construction land in ur- banization surrounding area would increase 25.58%, meanwhile, the cultivated land, other agricultural land and forest land landscape would respectively decrease.