反腐败与经济增长

Combating Corruption and Promoting Economic Growth

文章采用十八大以来至2014年末全国31个省区的季度数据,实证分析了反腐败对地方经济增长的影响。研究发现,中纪委通报的腐败官员落马事件对省区经济增长有显著的抑制效应,平均而言,该地区每增加一名副厅级以上的落马官员,当季经济增长速度降低接近0.1个百分点,这种影响是即时和短期的,并不具有长期累积性。进一步论证发现,反腐败主要是通过放缓投资而影响经济增长的。此外,中西部地区的经济增长受反腐败的影响更大;副省部级以上的官员落马事件对经济增长的影响更大。这些发现增进了人们对腐败、反腐败和经济增长之间内在规律的理解,丰富了政治制度影响经济增长的相关研究。

Exploiting quarterly economic data from 31 provinces in China from 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to the end of 2014, this paper empirically analyzes how combating corruption affects economic growth. We find that the news of an official being investigated by the CCP＇s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection significantly curbs economic growth in the province in question. On average, quarterly economic growth decreases by approximately 0. 1 percentage points in a region when there is a govemment official ranking higher than vice department chief, and this effect is immediate and does not last long. Furthermore, we find that anti - corruption campaign holds back economic growth by slowing down local investment growth. The western and central regions where administrative efficiency is lower are influenced more seriously, and the fall- ing of officials at or above provincial and ministerial level has greater effect on economic growth. These findings strengthen the understanding of the relationship between corruption, combating corruption and promoting economic growth, enriching the study of how political systems affect economic growth.