水文相似预测的理念和方法

Connotation and algorithm of hydrological similarity forecast method

从确定性与不确定性的角度,探讨了相似预测的基本理念并论述其应用于水文学的基础,以此提出了从选取特征矢量到构造预测量的完整算法.重点分析构造预测量的方法,通过分析未来出现的数值可能围绕均值左右摆动的特性,并促使应用者主动考虑预测值的不确定性,提出平均区间和序位区间的概念,为区间预测方法研究提供参考.将此理念及方法应用于宜昌站1890—2010年的年平均流量资料进行检验,结果表明:该方法对宜昌站年径流量的预测效果较好,能较好地描述径流在年尺度的变化,又能促使应用者发挥主观能动性,主动考虑预测值的不确定性.

For the certain and uncertain factors,the occurrence and evolution of hydrological phenomena show some similar properties.Hence the connotation and basis applied similarity forecast method（SFM）to hydrology have been probed from the viewpoint of certainty and uncertainty.And then the complete algorithm of SFM is presented which includes selecting the feature vectors,measuring the degree of similarity and constructing the predictive vector.Furthermore,on the basis of analysis for the predictive vectors＇ variation,and also to urge the engineering staff to consider the uncertainty of results,mean range and rank range are proposed that may provide a reference for range forecast.This method has been applied to annual runoff of Yichang station at the Yangtze River.The results show that the SFM has a good performance in hydrological forecast.