多层次灰色综合评价法在管道风险评价中的应用

Application of Multihierarchy Synthetic Grey Comprehensive Evaluation in Pipeline Risk Assessment

通过对影响管道安全运行的第三方损坏、腐蚀、制造与施工缺陷、地质灾害、误操作、后果六大类风险指标进行综合分析,基于灰色系统理论,建立了多层次灰色综合评价法管道风险评价模型。以某长输原油管道进行了实例分析,结果表明该模型能够处理多因素、多层次的综合评价问题,评价结果能够反映管道当前面临的主要风险。该模型能够有效避免传统打分法由于分数直接相加可能造成的风险遮蔽现象,具有较好的准确性与实用性。

A grey multi-hierarchical comprehensive evaluation model of pipeline semi-quantitative risk assessment is developed based on grey theory and the comprehensive analysis of the six factors influencing the secure operation of pipelines：third party damage,corrosion,manufacturing and construction defects,geological disasters,misuse and consequence.The results of engineering examples show that,the model is able to conduct the comprehensive evaluation of multiple factors and multiple layers system.The assessment results can reflect the main risk of the pipeline facing now.The model can effectively avoid risk shadowed or risk mismatching caused by direct adding of the traditional scoring method with good accuracy and practicality.