以国内需求促进我国出口稳定性增长的研究

Promoting China' Export Stable Growth byDomestic Demand

为能有效促进我国出口的稳定性增长,本文认为扩大以本地市场效应诠释的内需,需要在结构上与进、出口需求相匹配。然而,本文通过斯皮尔曼秩相关分析表明,我国的国内需求结构和出口结构相脱节。究其主要原因在于,我国出口的产品日益嵌入到全球价值链分工中。出口发展的市场空间,也因此面临被动收缩的局面。要实现我国出口的稳定性增长,可以考虑的一个方面是,重视和依托国内市场,拓展具有相似需求的海外市场。

In order to promote China~ s export stable growth, this paper maintains that expanding inner demand, which is exlained by home market effect, should match with import and export demands in structure. However, based on Spearman rank correlation analysis, this paper finds China＇ s domestic demand structure and export structure are irrelevent. The main reason is that China＇ s export products are embeding in global value chains. The room for export would shrink. At last , this paper points that the solution is to pay more attention to domenstic demand and further to expand overseas market with similar demand.