要素比较利益、政府作用与城镇化——基于向量自回归模型城镇化影响逻辑的实证分析

Comparative Advantage of Factors,Role of Government and Urbanization:The Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Urbanization Based on Vector Autoregression Model

本文以新时代的城镇化为基础,通过考察各产业要素的比较利益、政府作用对城镇化的影响研究了新型城镇化发展的影响逻辑:市场手段通过影响要素比较利益影响城镇化进程,政府通过间接、直接、制度等多种手段影响城镇化进程。运用1981-2012年的时间序列数据,建立向量自回归模型(VAR),实证研究表明:要素比较利益、政府作用与城镇化进程具有短期轻微波动、长期均衡关系;市场效应比政府作用影响效果更为显著,市场效应、政府作用分别提高1%,城镇化水平将提高0.175%和0.148%:长期来看,市场效应发挥主导作用,短期来看,政府推动作用更为显著但持续性不强。

Based on the new era urbanization, and the observation of the influence of the comparative advantages of industrial elements and the roles of government to the urbanization, this article studied the influence of the development of urbanization： by means of comparative advantage of industrial elements in the urbanisation procedure, and the government influence. Using the time series data from the year 1981 to 2012, the model of VAR has been settled to demonstrate that there is long-term equilibrium relationship and short-time slight fluctuation among the economic system of comparative advantage of industrial elements, role of government and urbanization; the market effect is more obvious than the government effect ; in the long run, the effect of market plays a leading role while, in the short term, the effect of government is more significant and less persistent.