基于三次指数平滑的云南学龄儿童人数预测研究

Yunnan School-age Children Prediction Based on Cubic Exponential Smoothing

构建科学、准确的学龄儿童人数预测模型,对合理规划小学学校数量,制定小学教师招聘计划,制定人口政策具有一定的参考价值。根据预测误差平方和最小原则,利用Matlab循环语句命令编程,设定平滑系数α的一个精度,从0<α<1的所有值中选择最优α,研究发现利用该法建立的三次指数平滑模型在学龄儿童人数预测方面有较好的预测效果;在此基础上利用马尔科夫预测法,对三次指数平滑模型预测结果进行修正,弥补了因随机波动性导致的预测误差偏大的情形;通过对这两个模型预测结果的对比分析,表明三次指数平滑-马尔科夫模型的预测效果比单独利用三次指数平滑模型的效果有较大改善。

Construction of scientific and accurate forecasting model for predicting the number of Yunnan schoolage children has certain reference value for the rational planning of the number of primary school,the development of primary school teachers recruitment plan,and the formulation of population policy. According to the principle of minimum sum of prediction error square,a precision of the smoothing coefficient is set up,the optimal smoothing coefficient is selected from all the values between 0 and 1,by using the Matlab loop statement programming. Research shows that the three exponential smoothing model established by this method has good prediction effect on the number of school-age children. On this basis,the forecasting results of the three exponential smoothing model are modified by using Markov forecasting method,which makes up for the forecast errors caused by random fluctuation. Through the comparison and analysis of the predicted results,it shows that the forecasting effect of cubic exponential smoothingmarkov model is better than cubic exponential smoothing model. Finally,the number of 2014-2016 Yunnan school-age children is forecasted by using cubic exponential smoothing-markov Model.