外商直接投资、碳泄漏与碳强度——基于中国省级面板数据

FDI, Carbon Leakage and Carbon Intensity——Based on China's Provincial-level Panel Data

本文利用2002—2012年我国30个省级行政单位的能源消耗数量估算了历年CO2排放量以及碳强度,通过构建动态面板模型估计了外商直接投资对碳强度的影响。为了解决内生性问题,通过系统GMM和差分GMM估计方法对动态模型进行了估计,研究发现外商直接投资导致我国碳强度下降。为了考察《京都议定书》以及我国节能减排政策的实施是否会对FDI与碳强度这两者关系产生影响,将2002—2012年以2006年作为临界点分为两个阶段,检验在这两个时间段两者之间的关系是否发生了结构性的变化,结果表明2006年之后外商直接投资导致我国碳强度更大幅度的下降。这说明外商直接投资的技术溢出作用超过了碳泄漏,对我国环境绩效的改善具有积极意义。

This paper estimates the quantity of CO2 emission and carbon intensity using energy consumption data of 30 provinces of China from 2002 to 2012, then estimates the effect of FDI on carbon intensity by constructing a dynamic panel model. In order to solve the problem of endogeneity, the methods of system GMM and difference GMM are used to estimate the model. The empirical result shows that FDI decrease carbon intensity. To investigate whether the implementation of Kyoto protocol and energy saving and emission reduction policy affect the relationship between FDI and carbon intensity, we divide the whole period of 2002-2012 into two parts by taking 2006 as the cut-off point, and test if the relationship between FDI and carbon intensity changed during the two different periods. The empirical result shows that FDI led to a further decline of carbon intensity. Therefore this paper concludes that the technological spillover of FDI dominates carbon leakage, so FDI has positive effect on China＇s improvement of environmental performance.