经济发展新常态下完善我国货币政策体系面临的挑战

The Challenges on Improving the Monetary Policy System under the New Normal Economy in China

构建适应和引领经济发展新常态的宏观金融调控体系,对完善我国货币政策目标体系、创新货币政策工具、优化政策工具组合、转变政策调控方式、疏通政策传导渠道和提升政策效果等提出了新的要求和挑战。经济发展新常态下,我国货币政策的最终目标将更趋多元化,目标之间的权衡取舍更加困难;中央银行在中介目标和操作目标的选择中兼顾数量目标和价格目标的平衡与转换能力的要求更高;中短期结构性政策工具虽然有利于稳增长,但需要解决中短期政策工具与长期目标之间的期限匹配、发挥政策工具的市场调节功能以及优化政策工具组合搭配等问题;货币政策调控方式转换则面临多元目标下的相机抉择向单一规则转型、调控时机把握、调控力度掌控以及利率调控模式选择等问题;货币政策传导机制将会更加复杂,效果更加不确定。客观认识新常态下货币政策的宏观调控职能,提升中央银行货币政策的独立性将有利于破解货币政策体系完善中面临的问题。

The improvements of monetary policy system face the new challenges in the developments of macroeconomic policy, which adapt and lead the new normal economy. The ultimate targets of monetary policy will be diversification and it should be more difficult for balancing the ultimate targets. The central bank should improve the abilities of balance and transition between the quantity targets and the price targets on the choice of intermediary targets and operation targets. Medium - short - term policy instruments benefit the economic growth in short term, but in long term, central bank should consider the term mismatch between medium - short - term policy instruments and the long term targets, the market mechanisms of policy instruments, and the optimization of instrument portfolios. The transitions of monetary policy operation face the problems, which are the transition from discretion to rule, choices of operation timing and quantity, and the choice of interest rate control modes. The monetary policy transmission mechanisms will be more complicated and the effects will be uncertain. Reali- zing the functions of monetary policy in new normal economy objectively and improving the independence of central bank should benefit in solving the problems facing by central bank under the new normal economy.