经济新常态下的刘易斯转折点演进路径研究

On Evolution Path Research of Lewis Turning Point in “New Normal”Economy

文章通过构建家庭效用决策模型,选取农产品与非农产品的相对价格、农业部门和非农业部门的全要素生产率、劳动产出弹性作为参数指标,并划定低度、中度和高度三种状态;借助数值模拟的分析方法,分别考察参数和变量的改变对中国刘易斯转折点产生的影响,并对经济新常态背景下可能出现的运动轨迹进行预测。研究表明:非农部门产出对刘易斯转折点的影响是正向的;2025年前,中国经济尚未形成真正意义的刘易斯转折点,非农部门产出的增加会加速转折点的来临;资本要素的影响类似于部门产出的作用;传统两部门效率差异对转折点的影响是负向的,这种差距不仅表现在生产方式、先进技术的获取、其他投入要素等微观层面,更是源自户籍管理、社会保障、就业政策等宏观制度性障碍。

Based on the utility decision model of family,this paper selects the following parameters： the relative price of agricultural and non-agricultural products,total factor productivity,labor output elasticity in agricultural sector and non-agricultural sector,and designates three states： low,medium and high. And on this basis,we have constructed a model of Lewis Turning Point evolution path based on the general equilibrium model to forecast its movement with the method of numerical simulation in this ＂new normal＂economy. Results show： the Chinese economy will not meet Lewis Turning Point in 2025,but an increase in non-agricultural sector output will accelerate the coming of Lewis turning point; the influence of capital elements is similar to industry production; the efficiency variance of two sectors is negative to the Lewis Turning Point. The efficiency gap is not only in microscopic system,such as the mode of production,advanced technology acquisition and other inputs,but also in macro system of household registration,employment and social security.