重大科技突破中的“及时跟进”现象研究——以诺贝尔科学奖为例

Research on the Following-up phenomenon in the breakthroughs of science and technology research:A case study of Nobel Prize

"自主原创"和"跟进他人",何者才是重大科技突破的取胜之道?很多人会选择前者.笔者认为重大原创成果由源头性原创与接续性原创组成,通过对1960-2012年间346位诺贝尔物理、化学、生理学或医学奖得主的获奖成果进行统计分析,其结论是:其中140人占总获奖人数的40.5%的科学家是通过及时跟进他人工作而获得诺贝尔奖的,他们的工作就是接续性原创工作,也就是说,通过及时跟进他人工作也可以做出世界级的重大科技突破.对菲尔兹奖的统计分析表明在数学领域也存在类似现象.这一发现对开展科技创新和重大科技突破具有重要意义,使得前沿文献分析和前沿学者的及时甄别有可能发挥极其重要的作用.

The research started from the question of which kind of research could lead to great break-throughs in science and technology, whether the independent, original research or the following-up research. While the common answer would be the original. The paper argued the original research which were signifi- cant science and technology achievements, consisted of fountain original research and successive original research, Through the statistic of 346 Noble Prize from 1960-2012, including Physics, Chemistry, Physiolo- gy and Medicine, we concluded that 140 awarders won Nobel through following- up research which accounted for 40.5%. Their work were successive original research, which means following-up the frontier could product world-class breakthroughs. The statistics on Fields Medal showed the same phenomenon in mathematics. The discovery of this paper will promote the understanding of great breakthroughs of science and tech- nology and guide the related policies, also the analysis of the frontier literatures and the distinguish of fron- tier scholars will contribute more in the building of future research environment.