基于时空耦合视角的中国区域经济增长俱乐部趋同分析

Analyzing Regional Economic Growth Club Convergence in China Based on the Perspective of Spatiotemporal Coupling

目前有关俱乐部趋同的研究存在一个很大的缺憾,即时间维度与空间维度的分离,这不仅无法真正揭示俱乐部趋同形成的内在机理,更有可能偏离俱乐部趋同的事实。该文从时空耦合的视角构建了区域经济增长俱乐部趋同的检验方法,并以中国329个地级行政区为基本区域单元,检验了中国区域经济增长是否存在俱乐部趋同,结果发现全国仅有一个由东部沿海发达地市、辽宁省大部分发达地市及中西部部分省会和资源型发达地市构成的发展水平较高的时空耦合趋同俱乐部。对该趋同俱乐部的影响因素分析表明,它是由区域经济增长的历史因素和结构因素在空间相互作用、市场作用及政府作用的综合影响下形成的。

The existing research about club convergence has an obvious shortcoming that is the separation of time and space dimensions.From the point of view of whether to consider the spatial effect of regional,the existing research can be roughly divided into two categories,namely,the time and space dimensions.Study on the characteristics of the time dimension is ignored the spatial effect of regional influence but attaches importance of the initial growth conditions and structural characteristics of multi factors.Study on the characteristics of the spatial dimension is focus on the analysis of spatial effect of regional but less on the analysis of factors of other relevant initial growth conditions and structural characteristics of influence.So the existing study on separation of time and space dimension is not conducive to the scientific explanation of the club convergence of regional economic growth.This paper sets up a test method of spatiotemporal coupling convergence club,including CART method and weighted random Kernel distribution density function.Using this method,this paper examines whether there exists spatiotemporal coupling convergence club of regional economic growth in China with 329 prefecture level administrative regions as the basic units during the period from 1990 to 2011.Through empirical analysis the paper found a rich spatiotemporal coupling convergence club constituted by the eastern coastal developed cities,the most developed cities of Liaoning Province and some capital and resource type developed cities of the central and western part.Then the paper analyzes influence factors of this convergence club.The analysis reveals its formation attributing to two types of factors and three forces.It is formed by the combined influence of historical factors and structural factors of regional economic growth with affecting of spatial interactions,market force and government power.