城市脆弱性的综合测度研究

Comprehensive Measurement of Urban Vulnerability

通过分析城市"人-地"复合系统的特点,对目前基于单一视角的城市脆弱性测度进行了有机拓展,构建了基于"非空间-空间"的城市脆弱性综合测度理论模型;以多准则决策分析技术和基于GIS的多准则决策分析技术为基础,分别给出了城市非空间脆弱性和空间脆弱性定量测度的技术方法,实现了对城市脆弱性的综合测度。合肥市的实证研究表明:合肥市1998-2012年的非空间脆弱性总体呈下降态势,但在2011年发生突变反弹;合肥市空间脆弱性可被划为低、较低、中、较高和高5种脆弱性分区。该项研究可为城市脆弱性研究领域提供理论方法参考和实践应用借鉴,为制定城市可持续发展政策提供科学依据。

According with the characteristics of the ＂ man-land＂ complex system,the paper expands the current measurement of urban vulnerability based on the single view into an integrated perspective,and then the theoretical model of ＂ non-spatial and spatial＂ in the comprehensive measurement of urban vulnerability is constructed.The quantitative measurement methods of urban non-spatial vulnerability and urban spatial vulnerability are put forward by the support of multicriteria decision-making techniques and the GIS-based multicriteria decision-making techniques respectively.Thus,it can achieve comprehensive measurement of urban vulnerability with science,complete and systematic feature.The non-spatial vulnerability and spatial vulnerability in Hefei are measured by the application of model and methods of comprehensive measurement.The results show：the non-spatial vulnerability in Hefei has the overall downward trend from 1998 to 2012.However,the mutation of non-spatial vulnerability occurred in 2011.The spatial vulnerability in Hefei can be divided into five vulnerability areas including very low vulnerability,low vulnerability,medium vulnerability,high vulnerability and very high vulnerability.The paper can provide references of theoretical method and practical application.It also can provide scientific basis for the policies of urban sustainable development.