结构性减税政策对居民消费的影响——基于PVAR模型的分析

Impact of Structural Tax Reduction Policy on Stimulating Residents' Consumption Based on PVAR Model

我们基于PVAR模型分析了我国主要税种对居民消费的影响情况。本文采用专门用于估计微观面板数据的PVAR模型,使用的数据样本为1995-2014年全国31个省、直辖市、自治区的居民消费、增值税、营业税、企业所得税、个人所得税等相关数据。实证结果表明,我国当前的增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税税负有偏高,不利于居民消费的提高。最后,本文根据实证分析结果提出了促进我国居民消费的结构性减税政策。

We analyze how the main taxes of our country affect Resident＇s consumption through PVAR model. this paper use PVAR model which is designed to estimate the micro panel data. This article uses the data of residents＇ consumption,VAT,business tax,corporate income tax,personal income tax and other related data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions during 1995 to 2014. The empirical results state that the high tax burden of Value-added tax,corporate income tax and personal income might have been a drag on the economy. At the end of this paper,based on empirical results,we proposed with the structural tax reduction policy which promote Resident＇s consumption in our country.