OFDI促进了中国的出口吗?——基于动态面板模型的系统GMM检验

Can OFDI Promote the Export of China? An Empirical Analysis of Systematic Dynamic Panel GMM Model

基于2003—2013年中国对外直接投资的国别数据,选取41个样本国家和地区的双边数据,建立扩展的贸易引力模型,采用动态面板模型系统GMM估计,对中国对外直接投资与出口的关系进行了检验。研究结果表明,整体而言,中国的对外直接投资对出口存在显著的替代效应;分组来看,无论是对发达国家还是发展中国家替代效应仍然存在,且发展中国家组更为显著;进一步以2008年分时间段进行检验发现,在2008年以前对外直接投资对出口没有显著的影响,但2008年以后表现出显著的替代效应。

This paper is based on country- specific data of China foreign direct investment from 2003 to 2013. Selecting 41 countries and regions bilateral data as sample,setting up the extended Trade Gravity Model and using Dynamic Panel Model System GMM estimation to test the relationship between China＇s foreign direct investment and exports. The research results show that overall,China foreign direct investment has a significant substitution effect to export; as grouping,the substitution effect exists in both developed and developing countries,and is more significant in developing countries; further test with the time period divided by the year 2008,we found that foreign direct investment has insignificant effect on exports before 2008,but showed significant substitution effect after 2008.