全球变化对南太平洋岛国图瓦卢的影响分析

Analysis of the Effects of Global Change on the South Pacific Island Nation Tuvalu

基于图瓦卢1950-2010年以来气温降水的数据、海平面变化的数据,利用线性回归分析方法分析了气温、降水量时空变化情况.结果表明:60年来,图瓦卢气温、降水分别呈上升、减少的变化特点,图瓦卢气温降水与厄尔尼诺拉尼娜现象有不同的相关性,厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜对图瓦卢渔场产生了很大的影响.全球变化导致图瓦卢国土安全、经济安全受到严重挑战,并对气候移民弊端做了分析,提出了非移民对策和全球应该共同采取的行动对策.

This paper based on the Tuvalu from 1950 to 2010 since the data of temperature and precipitation and sea-level chaNge data, using linear regression analysis method to analyze the temperature and precipitation of the temporal and spatial variation. The results showed that： 60 years, air temperature, precipitation changes of Tuvalu were reduced, the characteristics of the rise, there are different correlation between temperature and precipitation of Tuvalu and E1 Nino La Nina, E1 Nino and La Nina has great influence on the Tuvalu fishing ground ; under the background of global change lead to rising sea levels, Tuvalu land area decreasing, from the rising of the sea the plane and the E1 Nino/La Nina on temperature and precipitation, fisheries and economic crops effect provides an overview of the latest research progress of climate change in the Pacific island region in recent years, environmental, economic and social impacts of sea level rise on Coastal vulnerable areas may cause, never immigration and other aspects of the countermeasures to deal with the global change of Tuvalu, and future directions of research and countermeasures.