中国经济增速下降的原因与应对选择

Causes of and Countermeasures to the Decline of China's Economic Growth

对中国经济增速下降的原因,本文不同意那种基于人口红利消失和刘易斯转折点到来的解释。目前的担心是,我国经济已经处于通货收缩过程,有效需求的减少将导致当期生产过剩和产能过剩的进一步增加。本文认为,我国仍处在人口红利收获期,目前的增速下降与2002-2012年的经济高速增长是同一关键驱动因素导致的。房地产投资变化及其乘数效应是拉动中国经济走出1997-2001年通货收缩实现经济高速增长的主要引擎,2002-2014年新增GDP的63%是新增房地产投资的贡献,同时又是推动当前经济增速下滑的主要驱动力量;另外,资源的"空间错配"和政府强化行政权力对资源配置的干预,降低了经济增长的质量和效益。正确的增速下降原因判断对于合理的应对选择至关重要。正确的应对选择应当是:调整严控特大城市人口规模的政策,使大都市区成为经济增长的发动机;通过进一步深化大部门体制改革和打破垄断来激发市场活力。

In accounting for the decline of China＇s economic growth,this paper does not agree with the explanations of disappearing of demographic dividend and the coming of Lewis Turning Point.The current concern is that the economy is in the process of deflation,and the effective demand reduction would further increase stock surplus and production capacity surplus.The author believes that China is still benefiting from the population dividend.The economic growth decline and the high growth rate during 2002 to 2012are based on the same driving power.The variation of real estate investment and its multiply effect pulled the economy out of deflation during 1997-2001,and 63% of the GDP growth during 2002 and 2014was contributed by the real estate investment,which is also the main cause of the recent decline.Besides,the resource spatial mismatch and government intervention in resource allocation reduce the quality and effectiveness of economic growth.A reasonable judgment is the key to make correct countermeasures.The right solution is,first,adjusting the strict restriction on population growth in metropolis,releasing their power to motivate the economic growth;and second,deepening the Super-ministry System reform and stimulate the market vitality by breaking monopoly.