思南县各乡镇气温分析及气温预报订正方法研究

The Temperature Analysis and Research of the Temperature Forecast's Correction in all the Towns of Sinan County

利用思南县2010—2014年25个乡镇区域自动站和思南国家站气温资料,统计分析发现:思南县各乡镇气温分布主要呈现自南向北递减趋势,各乡镇区域站与思南国家站观测的平均、最高及最低气温存在明显差异,且随着季节变化差异有所不同,各乡镇区域站与思南国家站观测气温的差值绝对值最大值均大于2.0℃。本文结合思南县25个乡镇区域自动站和思南国家站的气温数据及地理分布,选取数据最为完整的思南国家站作为代表站,利用最小二乘法得出各乡镇观测站点与思南国家站气温关系式,建立预报方法。经检验,预报效果总体较好,对思南各乡镇气温预报有较好的指导意义。

Based on the temperature data from 25 towns＇ automatic station and Sinan automatic station during2010—2014,the statistics data of temperature distribution in Sinan County was analyzed. The results show that the temperature distribution mainly presents decreasing trend from south to north in Sinan and the obvious difference of average,maximum and minimum temperatures between Sinan and others＇ towns automatic station which at the same time vary with the seasons. The maximum temperature difference of the absolute value between Sinan and others＇ towns automatic station is greater than 2. 0 ℃. In this paper,the towns＇ temperature prediction method was established through the least square method; Sinan was selected as the representative station with the most complete data,using the temperature data and geographic distribution of Sinan and 25 towns＇ automatic station. The temperature relation equation between town station and Sinan national station was obtained by least- square method and the forecast method was established and verified. Results show that the prediction is satisfactory on the whole,which can provide a good guidance for the temperature forecast of towns.