滨海新区水资源供需量预测及用水结构特点分析

Prediction on Supply and Demand of Water Resources and Characteristics Analysis of Water Consumption Structure in Binhai New Area

需水量及供水量是城市用水和供水系统进行规划和配置的主要依据,为保证城市水资源供需平衡,需对城市需水及供水量运用科学准确的方法进行预测。根据滨海新区发展规划及产业布局,在调查研究的基础上,选择合理的用水量指标,首先对滨海新区2020年城市需水量进行预测,并对预测结果进行合理性分析,同时利用滨海新区多水源可利用性分析成果对滨海新区各类供水量进行预测,最后根据上述预测成果对滨海新区用水结构及用水特点进行分析。结果显示,2020年滨海新区城市预测需水总量和用水总量均为12.69×108m3,其中需水量与天津城市供水规划中相比稍大10%,相比2010年则年均增长11.46%,预测结果在合理范围内。

Prediction of water demand and water supply is the main basis for the planning and configuration of urban water consumption and water supply system. In order to ensure the balance between supply and demand of urban water resources, scientific and accurate methods should be used to predict the urban water demand and water supply. According to the development planning and industrial layout of Binhai New Area, series of reasonable indexes for water consumption were selected to predict the urban water demand of Binhai New Area in 2020, and rational analysis on the predicted results was performed. In the meantime, all kinds of water supply were predicted based on the availability analysis results of multiple water resources in Binhai New Area. The structure and characteristics of water consumption in Binhai New Area were analyzed based on the above prediction results. The results showed that the predicted total water demand and water supply in Binhai New Area in 2020 were both 12.69 12.69×108m3, of which water demand was 10% higher than that in the Tianjin water supply planning, and the average annual growth was 11.46% compared with that in 2010, so the predicted results were in a reasonable range.