人口老龄化与宏观经济关系的探讨

On the Relationship between Aging and Macroeconomy

随着生育率的下降和平均预期寿命的提高,全球将不可逆转地进入老龄化社会。作为最大的发展中国家,中国正在进入持续40年的高速老龄化时期。中国多数人的观点认为人口老龄化会抑制中国经济的增长,甚至会导致经济的衰退。美国也同样面临老龄化的问题,但是美国国家科学院的研究报告却对美国人口老龄化与宏观经济关系做出了不一样的结论。人口老龄化对政府开支会有显著影响,但对劳动生产率和创新的影响很小,对资产价格也不会有大的影响。老龄化导致的私人资产积累甚至有可能对经济产生积极作用。整体来说,人口老龄化对生活水平的影响是有限的,对于整个宏观经济的影响是温和的。这些观点和结论对中国人口老龄化与宏观经济关系的探讨具有重要启发和借鉴。

Driven by decreasing fertility along with improving life expectancy,the world is entering an irreversible aging society. As a developing country with the largest population,China will be experiencing a sustained and rapid aging in the next 40 years. It is widely held that aging would inhibit the economic growth of China,leading even to recession. While the United States is also facing the aging problem,a research report prepared by the US National Academy of Sciences has reached different conclusions about the impact of aging on macro-economy. Population aging would have a significant impact on government expenditure; however its impact would be very small on labor productivity,innovation and asset prices. Accumulation of private assets due to aging may even have a positive effect on the economy. Overall,the impact of aging on living standards is limited,and the overall macroeconomic impact is moderate. These views and conclusions about the relationship between aging and macro-economy have important enlightenments and implications for the related ageing studies in China.