人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异研究——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

The Differential Effects of Demographic Changes on Urban and Rural Consumption Rates: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

文章通过扩展世代交叠模型,考察了人口年龄结构变化对一国居民消费率的影响。基于2000-2013年中国省级面板数据,系统广义矩估计和门槛回归结果表明：在城镇地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生正向影响,且该正向影响都随收入增长率的提高而减弱;而在农村地区,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对消费率均产生负效应,少儿抚养比的负效应随收入增长率的提高而增强,老年抚养比的负效应却呈现＂倒U型＂特征。研究结论表明：生命周期消费理论在中国只适用于城镇地区,并不适用于农村地区,人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异十分显著。城镇地区少儿抚养比的大幅下降和农村地区老年抚养比的持续上升是中国居民消费率长期走低的重要原因。

Based on extended overlapping-generation model,this paper investigates the impacts of demographic changes on consumption rate. Using Chinese panel data from 2000 to 2013,the estimated results of system GMM and threshold regression reveal that child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have a significant positive impact on consumption rate in urban areas,and the positive effect weakens with the improvement of income growth. While child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have significant negative impact on consumption rate in rural areas,the negative impact of child dependency ratio on consumption rate strengthens with the improvement of income growth,and elderly dependency ratio shows an inverted U-shape relationship with consumption rate. Thus in China the life-cycle theory of consumption is only applicable to urban areas,and there are significant differential effects of demographic structure changes on urban and rural consumption rate. The long-term decline in the consumption rates is a result of the sharp fall of child dependency ratio in urban areas and the constant increase of elderly dependency ratio in rural areas.