加权灰色关联理论模型在辽宁海上交通事故分析与预测中的应用

Application of weighted grey correlation theory model in analysis and prediction of maritime traffic accidents in Liaoning

为增强海上交通运输安全,运用灰色系统理论中的加权灰色关联分析和预测的基本原理,改进关联系数的计算方法,并考虑各序列因子在不同点处的权重差异,对辽宁水域2007—2013年的船舶交通事故进行分析.建立该水域船舶交通事故总数与事故类型及发生时间的关联矩阵,根据得到的加权灰色关联度寻求事故的发生规律.将传统灰色关联理论与加权灰色关联理论的关联结果进行对比,验证加权灰色关联理论具有较好的精确性和层次性.建立船舶交通事故总数的预测模型,并对该水域的交通形势进行预测,同时将预测模型结果与实际数据相比较,得到模型预测精度,证明该模型合理、可靠,可以为海上交通事故的预防提供指导和借鉴.

To enhance maritime transportation safety,the basic principle of weighted grey correlation analysis and prediction in grey system theory is used to analyze the ship traffic accidents between 2007 and2013 in Liaoning waters,where the calculation method to correlation coefficients is optimized and the weight difference of different points of each sequence is considered. The correlation matrices between the total number of ship traffic accidents and accident types as well as their occurrence time are established,and the regularity of outbreak is sought based on the obtained weighted grey correlation degree. Through the comparison of the correlation results obtained respectively by the traditional grey correlation theory and the weighted grey correlation theory,it is verified that the weighted grey correlation theory is of better accuracy and hierarchy. The prediction model of the total number of ship traffic accidents is established to predict the traffic situation in the waters; then,the comparison is made between the prediction results andthe real data. The prediction precision of the model is obtained,which proves the reasonability and reliability of the model. It can provide some guidance for maritime traffic accident prevention.