基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论在霍尔古吐水电站坝址区泥石流危险性评价中的应用

DEBRIS FLOW RISK ASSESSMENT AT HUOERGUTU HYDROPOWER DAM SITE USING GREY CORRELATION METHOD AND EXTENSION THEORY

泥石流危险性评价是灾情预测、防灾救灾决策中的重要内容,是国内外灾害科学研究的热点之一。本文以新疆开都河霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群沟泥石流为研究对象,在对泥石流区域地质环境研究的基础上,选取泥石流规模、爆发频率等8个因素作为评价因子,采用灰色关联度确定评价因子权重,运用可拓理论,通过定性和类比的方法对群发泥石流区域进行危险性评价。将评价结果与刘希林提出的单沟泥石流评价结果比较,清水沟与雪莲沟的可拓法评价危险度等级要高于单沟泥石流评价结果,这一结果和现场调查情况相吻合。因此,基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论对霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群发泥石流危险度评价结果合理可靠,进而为坝区泥石流危险性评估、规划防治提供合理的科学依据。

Hazard assessment of debris flow is a hot research topic of the disaster science.It is an important task of disaster forecast,prevention and reduction.This paper takes the debris flow gullies atthe dam site in Huoergutu hydropower along Xinjiang Kaidu River as the research area.Based on the studying of the geological environment,it selects eight aspects as evaluation factors.They include debris flow scale,outbreak of the frequency.The weight coefficient of contestant factors is obtained using thegray correlation degree.The risk assessment of debris flow gulliesis evaluated through the qualitative and analogical methods.The results are compared with the results of site-specific debris flowharazd assessment by LIU Xilin.The risk degrees of the Qingshui gully and Xuelian gully using the extension theory are greater than the results of site-specific debris flow harazd assessment,which iscoincided with the filed investigation.Therefore,the grey correlation and extension theory based method for debris flow gulliesnbsp;at the dam site is reasonable and reliable.The method provides reasonable and scientific basis for risk assessment, planning and controlling of debris flows at the dam site.