海南城镇化建设与经济增长关系实证研究

Relationship between Urban Construction and Economic Increase in Hainan

以1978-2013年海南人均GDP和城镇化率为样本,采用协整分析和Granger因果检验,对海南经济增长和城镇化建设关系进行实证分析。结果表明:海南城镇化建设与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,城镇化率每增加1%,人均GDP增长约4.4%。然而,二者之间并不存在显著的Granger因果关系。实证结果对促进海南城镇化建设和实现经济发展具有一定现实意义。

This paper choose the data of GDP per capita and the rate of urbanization in Hainan during year 1978 to 2013 as a sample to analyze the relation between urbanization and economic growth of Hainan. The results of the empirical analysis show that there exists long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization and economic growth, and with urbanization increasing one percent economic growth rate increases 4.4 percent. However, no Granger causality relationship has been shown. At last, this paper explains the reason of these results and proposes several suggestions to the construction of urbanization and the development of economy.