急性百草枯中毒预后影响因素的研究

Acute Paraquat Poisoning Prognostic Factors Analysis

目的探讨分析急性百草枯中毒预后影响因素,为早期判定预后、指导临床治疗提供依据。方法收集85例急性百草枯中毒患者临床资料,通过多元逻辑回归分析比较患者预后与上述资料间的关系,得出显著影响因素。计算显著影响因素的死亡/存活的95%置信区间。结果患者服毒量、白细胞计数、中性粒细胞百分比、肌酐、尿素氮(BUN)、血清药物浓度、Lac、百草枯中毒严重指数(Severity index of paraquat poisoning,SIPP)与预后具有显著相关性。逻辑回归模型对"死亡"的预测准确率为84.6%;对"存活"的预测准确率为91.3%,总的预测准确率为88.2%。

Objective To analyze the prognostic factors of acute paraquat poisoning （APP）,and to guide clinic treatment. Methods Collect 85 APP patients clinic data.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the factors related to the prognosis,to find the significant influence factors. The 95% confidence interval of death/survival was calculated.Results Toxic dose level, WBC,N%,SCr,BUN,serum drug concentration,Lac,SIPP have significant correlation with prognosis. The greater the value, the greater the risk of death. Conclusions Logistic regression model for predicting the death rate was 84.6%,and the accuracy of the prediction of ＂survival＂ was 91.3%, and the total forecast accuracy was 88.2%.