因子分析法在泥石流危险性评价中的应用

Application of factor analysis to debris flow risk assessment

为研究因子分析法在泥石流危险性评价中的应用,在建立科学合理的评价指标基础上,利用因子分析法得到影响泥石流危险性的主因子,并进行主、次影响因子的重要性等级排序,得到泥石流主要影响因子对泥石流危险性的贡献度。根据主客观赋权理论,将多目标规划模型所得的客观赋权值与考虑组态偏好要求时的主观均衡度变权值线性组合,得到关于泥石流危险性评价的主客观赋权法主因子权重。选择2种主要分级标准对泥石流危险性指标进行标准化处理,结合权重与影响因子的贡献度建立了多因子综合评价模型,并以保山市后山10条典型泥石流沟基础数据为例,评价了该地区的泥石流危险性。研究表明,利用该方法进行泥石流危险性评价是合理可行的,评价结果与实际情况具有较好的一致性,该方法是泥石流危险性评价的一种新思路。

To study the application of factor analysis in debris flow risk assessment,on the basis of establishing a scientific and reasonable evaluation index,using the factor analysis method to get the main factors of debris flow risk,and rank the primary and secondary impact factor according the importance,get the main impact factors and landslide in the contribution of debris flow risk. According to the objective and subjective synthetic approach theory,a linear combination with the proceeds value from the objective weighting in multi-objective programming model and the degree of variable weights considering the configuration preference for equilibrium were made,and got the main factor subjective and objective weights of debris flow risk assessment. Choosing two main classification standard for the standardizing processing of debris flow risk indicators. Established a multi-factor comprehensive evaluation model combining with weight and contribution ＇s impact factor,and taking the basic data in Baoshan city＇s 10 typical debris flow gully as an example,evaluate the debris flow risk assessment in this area. Research shows that,the use of this method for debris flow risk assessment is feasible,and the evaluation result has good consistency with the actual situation,for the study of debris flow risk assessment provides a new analysis method.