多项式分布滞后模型在地面沉降预测中的应用

A PDL model used for the prediction of ground subsidence

介绍多项式分布滞后模型(PDL模型)建立过程,针对地面沉降相对于地下水水位变化的滞后作用,建立考虑滞后作用的多项式分布滞后预测模型,应用该模型对某地区地面沉降实测数据进行模拟预测,并评价模型各项指标。实例分析表明,PDL模型应用到地面沉降变形趋势具有预测精度高、拟合效果好的特点,可以有效实现地下水水位变化导致地面滞后性沉降的定量模拟和预测。

The process of establishing polynomial distributed lag model（PDL model）is introduced.According to the ground subsidence it shows a nature of hysteresis effect comparing with the fluctuation of groundwater level,and the polynomial distribution lag prediction model is established,which is used to simulate and forecast the ground subsidence based on the measured data of a certain area.The index of the model is evaluated.Example analysis shows the PDL model used to forecast the trend of settlement deformation has the characteristics of high forecast precision and good fitting effect.The quantitative simulation and prediction of the lag of ground subsidence caused by the fluctuation of groundwater level are implemented efficiently.