偏离份额模型的改进及江苏海洋产业发展研究

Improvement of Shift Share Model and Research on the Development of Marine Industry in Jiangsu Province

由于产业之间存在的关联性,某产业部门的产值增长会受到其他产业部门的影响。文章针对传统偏离份额模型未能考虑产业间的相互作用,难以全面分析地区经济总量变动与产业间关联关系的问题,通过投入产出表在分析各产业间关联关系的基础上,对传统偏离份额模型进行了改进,并建立了部门偏离份额模型,从产业间相互作用的新视角提出了研究经济总量变动的方法。部门偏离份额模型将经济总量的变动分解为部门国家效应、部门结构效应和部门竞争力效应三个分量,并选取江苏海洋产业的数据进行实证分析,结果表明该方法对产业和地区经济增长的分析是有效和合理的,为海洋产业的研究提供了新的分析视角。

The economic growth of an industrial sector will be influenced by other industrial sectors because of the correlationsbetween them. It is difficult for the traditional shift share model to make a comprehensive analysis on the correlations betweenregional economic gross change and industries because it fails to consider the interactions between industries. The paper,based on the analysis of the relationship between different industries by the input and output table,makes the improvement onthe traditional shift share model and builds a sectoral shift share model,and puts forward the method of studying the change oftotal economy from a new perspective of the interactions between sectors. The sectoral shift share model decomposes thechange of total economy into three components： sectoral national effect,sectoral structural effect and sectoral competitivenesseffect. This paper also makes an empirical analysis on the data of marine industry in Jiangsu province. The results show thatthe model is effective and reasonable to analyze the industries and regional economic growth,which provides a new perspectivefor the research on marine industry.