基于系统动力学的高校校园安全预警系统

Study on the Early Warning System for the University Campus Safety Based on System Dynamics

针对目前高校校园安全不容乐观的形势,有效降低高校校园事故发生率,利用系统动力学在时变性及非线性建模上的优势,以流程图为基础构建高校校园安全管理的系统动力学预警模型,运用Vensim建模软件对高校校园安全预测及预控策略优选进行模拟仿真。结果表明,运用系统动力学研究高校校园安全提高了安全预警的时效性,全面完善高校管理机制和加强高校学生安全技能及应急意识,可有效提高高校校园预警效能。

In view of the characteristics of complexity and unpredictability of the university campus safety,how to effectively reduce accidents on campus has become the focus of attention.Through analyzing the advantage of system dynamics in time-varying and nonlinear modeling,the study aims to construct the system dynamic early warning model of safety management on university campus based on flow diagram by using Vensim to predict and pre-control strategy optimization simulation.The results show that,by using system dynamics research,the timeliness of security early warning on university campus has been improved;improving university comprehensive management mechanism and strengthening the safety emergency awareness skills of college students can effectively improve the efficiency of college campus warning.