黑龙江大豆生产时空分析与风险评估

Spatial and temporal analysis of soybean production and its risk assessment in Heilongjiang

基于黑龙江省大豆产量锐减和自然灾害加重的背景,依据1993—2012年13个地市和农垦总局(ARB)20 a的产量数据,运用数理统计和单产分布模拟推导法,分析了黑龙江大豆产量时空变化,并评估了相应的生产风险。结果表明:2005年黑龙江大豆产量达到峰值748万t,2012年产量直线下降至463.4万t;2012年,齐齐哈尔、农垦总局和黑河为黑龙江三大主产区,产量占全省的55.73%,发生灾害的概率分别为41.61%、18.78%和41.11%,全省灾害发生概率最高的是大兴安岭46.42%,最低的是农垦总局18.78%;齐齐哈尔和黑河作为黑龙江大豆主产区,灾害风险相对较高,在灾害防御投入、政策补贴等方面应优先考虑。

In the context of sharp decrease in soybean yield and gradual increase of natural disasters in Heilongjiang,the information about the spatial and temporal distribution of soybean and the corresponding production risk were very useful for making planting and insurance policies,which would enhance food security. Based on the data of soybean yield in Heilongjiang from 1993 to 2012,the spatial and temporal variations of soybean yield were analyzed using the mathematical statistics method,and production risks of 14 areas in Heilongjiang were estimated using the yield distribution model. The results indicated that the soybean yield of Heilongjiang reached a maximum of 7 480 thousands tones in 2005,and became decreased sharply to 4 634 thousands tones in 2012. Qiqihaer,ARB and Heihe were the three main soybean production areas that accounted for 55. 73% of soybean yield in Heilongjiang in 2012,and the corresponding production risks were 41. 61%,18. 78% and 41. 11%,respectively. In Heilongjiang province,the lowest soybean production risk area was ARB,and the highest was Daxinganling reaching 46. 42% in2012. Priority in disaster prevention and financial subsidization would need to be given to Qiqihaer and Heihe due to their large yield and high production risk.