基于人力人口比值法的乡村医生需求分析及预测研究

Demand analysis and prediction research of rural doctors by human population ratio method

目的:预测南京市高淳区乡村医生需求量,为制定卫生人力规划提供参考。方法:根据2009-2014年南京市高淳区常规统计资料,运用人力人口比值法预测2020年南京市高淳区乡村医生需求量。结果:2020年高淳区农业人口每千人口拥有乡村医生0.55人,低于最低标准每千人口乡村医生数1人。结论:南京市高淳区基层卫生人员短缺,城乡卫生资源分配不均衡。政府职能部门应该采取相应措施,调整卫生资源,加大基层卫生医疗队伍建设。

Objective To forecast the demand for rural doctors in Gaochun district of Nanjing city,to provide reference for health manpower planning.Methods Human population ratio method was used to predict demand for rural doctors in Gaochun district of Nanjing in 2020 based on the data Gaochun area during 2009 and 2014.ResultsIt was predicted that in 2020 there would be 0.55 rural doctor per thousand for agricultural population in Gaochun district of Nanjing,which was lower than minimal standard of 1doctor per thousand residents.Conclusions There is a shortage of health manpower and imbalanced allocation of urban and rural health resources.The government should take relevant measures to readjust health resources and to construct basic healthcare team.