货币政策、债务融资与绩效的结构路径分析——基于房地产上市公司视角

Monetary Policy, Debt Financing and Performance Structual Path Analysis——Based on the Real Estate Listed Companies Perspective

我国自实行住房分配货币化、启动住房消费以来,房地产业得到快速发展。央行实行的一系列货币政策,直接影响房企的债务融资和绩效。本文以我国125家房地产上市公司为研究对象,以2000-2014年国家货币政策及公司财务数据为样本,从宏观到微观层面构建非平衡面板数据,建立货币政策——债务融资——企业绩效的分析框架,研究货币政策对房地产企业绩效影响的内在机理。结果表明,货币政策对房企绩效影响的有效路径共11条,其中1条直接路径,10条间接路径;M2、利率及存款准备金率的总中介效应分别为0.2135、0.002、0.4211,对房企绩效产生不同程度的正面作用。

Since the capitalization of housing distribution and the stimulation of housing consumption, the real estate industry developed rapidly. The central bank implemented a series of monetary policy directly that affects real estate companies＇ financing and performance. This paper is made the 125 real estate listed companies＇ 2000-2014 monetary policy and financial data for the research samples, constructed the unbalanced panel data from macro to micro level and the monetary policy-debt financing-corporate performance framework to research the internal mechanism between monetary policy and corporate performance. the results show that： The impacts of monetary policy on corporate performance have 11 valid paths, including 1 direct path and 10 indirect paths. The total mediating effect of M2, interest rates and deposit reserve ratio were 0.2135,0.002,0.4211, having positive effects on the performance of different degrees.