全球宏观对冲基金在套息交易中对我国进出口贸易的影响性研究

In the Carry Trade, Do the Global Macro Hedge Fund Influenced China's Import and Export Trade

近年来,许多国家为维护自身经济利益,相继展开竞争性货币贬值,使全球宏观对冲基金这一外汇套息交易中的主力军在全球范围内展开狙击。我国进出口贸易对国内乃至国际社会产生的影响不断加大,使我国进出口贸易平衡问题成为学术研究的焦点。对冲基金发起外汇套息交易影响一国汇率、利率水平,改变进出口商品价格,从而波及一国进出口贸易。采用实证研究的方式,使用Eviews分析软件,实证结果表明:宏观对冲基金的套息交易对我国进出口贸易产生了降低进口额、减少进出口贸易盈余的影响。

In recent years, many countries start competitive devaluations to protect their own economic interest, as the main force in the carry trade, the global macro hedge fund start attack on a global scale. China＇s domestic and overseas impacts become huger, of course it stirs researchers＇ interest. Hedge fund participates in the carry trade which will have an impact on a country＇s interest rate and exchange rate, thus change the prices of import and export commodities, and then affect the hole condition of import and export trade. The empirical research is relied on Eviews and foud that the global macro hedge fund do have an impact of reducing China＇s import and export surplus.