山东省经济增长的资源约束计量分析

Econometric analysis of resource constraint of economic growth for Shandong Province

基于资源环境承载力限制引起的对经济潜在增长拖累的'增长阻尼'假说,在新经济增长理论框架下构建一个测度资源要素对经济增长约束的测度模型。依据此模型,利用1979—2012年的数据样本,分别测算能源、土地和水资源对山东经济增长的阻尼系数。结果表明,能源和土地资源约束是山东经济可持续增长的两大主要制约因素。山东省应把突破能源和土地资源约束对经济可持续增长的制约摆在更加重要的位置,推进经济发展方式转变,增强产业自主创新能力,提高技术进步在经济增长中的地位和作用,依靠创新驱动降低对经济发展的资源约束压力,确保经济可持续增长。

Based on the hypothesis of'growth drag' due to the limits of carrying capacity of environmental resources, under the framework of new economic growth theory,this paper developed a measurement model on the constraints in resources on the sustainable growth of economy, and computed the growth drag coefficients of energy, land and water resources using the data from 1979 to 2012. The results show that energy consumption and land utilization are two main constraining factors on the sustainable growth of economy in Shandong Province. Shandong should speed up the transformation of the economic growth mode, and promote the progress of science and technology to reduce the constraints of environmental resources on eco-nomic growth,especially strengthening the technological progress to offset the growth drag of energy and land constraints on the sustainable economic development.