利用网络规模迭加法估计上海市闵行区吸毒人群规模的调查研究

Estimating the size of drug abusing population by using a network scale-up method in Minhang district of Shanghai

目的估计上海市闵行区吸毒人群规模,为制定吸毒人群艾滋病干预措施提供参考依据。方法采用多阶段随机抽样的方法在上海市闵行区社区人群中招募调查对象,并进行问卷调查,利用网络规模迭加法(network scale-up method,NSUM)来估计吸毒人群的规模。结果共调查合格对象3 907人,其中男性1 920人,女性1 987人;调查对象年龄为(40.54±11.69)岁。初步估计上海市闵行区居民社交网络规模均值为206人,经调整校正后为240人;进一步依据网络规模迭加法估计可得该区吸毒人群规模为3 664人。结论网络规模迭加法估计敏感人群具有一定的可信度,值得进一步推广。

Objective To estimate the number of drug addicts in Minhang district of Shanghai by using a network scale-up method,and to provide reference for HIV intervention. Methods A multistage random sampling method was used to recruit eligible participants among general residents in Minhang district of Shanghai,and a questionnaire survey was conducted.The size of drug abusing population was further estimated by network scale-up method（NSUM）. Results A total of 3 907 eligible subjects,including 1 920 males and1 987 females,were surveyed with the mean age of 40.54±11.69.The average size of social network of residents in Minhang district was initially estimated as 206.After the adjustment,it turned out to be 240.Based on the estimation of network scale-up method,the size of drug abusing population was 3 664. Conclusions The method of NSUM used to estimate the size of specific population is credible and worth to be popularized.