区域银行业市场结构与金融稳定的关系研究——基于中国省域面板数据的经验证据

On the Relationship Between Regional Banking Market Structure and Financial Stability——Empirical Evidence Based on Provincial Panel Data from China

银行业在我国金融体系中居主体地位,银行业市场结构不仅决定了银行业的效率,而且对金融体系稳定性进而对经济增长和经济稳定具有更大的影响。这就需要持续关注和评估银行业市场结构的变化及其效应。研究采用省域面板数据以区域系统重要性银行的稳定性指标作为区域金融稳定的代理指标,对银行业市场结构与金融稳定的关系在区域层面上进行研究。研究发现,我国区域银行业集中度提高会对区域金融稳定产生负面影响,支持集中—风险假说,并且这种关系在区域间存在程度上的差异。因此,应继续深化金融市场化改革,增强银行业竞争性,促进银行业创新,增进银行业效率,既有利于促进区域经济增长,也有利于维护区域金融稳定。同时,应针对区域特点,实施区域差异化改革政策,更有利于区域金融发展和稳定。

In China＇s bank-based financial system, the banking market structure not only determines theefficiency and soundness of the banking industry, but also has greater effect on the stability of the financialsystem and in turn on the economic growth and stability. It is highly necessary to continue to monitor and assess the changes and effects of the banking market structure. Based on the provincial panel data over the period from 2005 to 2014, the paper explores the relationship between the banking market structure and financialstability at the regional level, using the z-score of regional systemically important banks as a proxy indicatorfor regional financial stability. It provides empirical evidence that the greater concentration of the regionalbanking market has a negative impact on the regional financial stability across the country, which is consistentwith the Concentration-Fragility View. The relationship varies in different regions. Therefore, financial marketreforms should be deepened to promote competition, efficiency and performance in banking industry, and thereform policy diversified to improve the regional financial development and stability as well.