基于城镇化的耕地资源数量变化及其驱动力分析——以合肥市为例

Urbanization Based Cultivated Land Quantity Change and Its Driving Force Analysis:A Case Study of Hefei City

如何科学协调地区经济发展与耕地资源保护二者之间关系一直以来都是考察地方行政决策能力和发展理念的现实难题。随着我国进入全面建成小康社会的决定性阶段,工业化与城镇化水平的提升对发展空间的需求势必对地区耕地资源的保护产生重大影响。以城镇化水平快速提升的典型区域合肥市为研究对象,基于该市1990~2010年耕地资源变化数据与社会经济发展统计数据,系统分析了合肥市城镇化水平与耕地面积变化情况;同时,结合合肥市耕地资源数量变化的实际情况,科学选取能够有效反映城镇化现状的8项社会经济发展因素作为指标,综合运用主成分分析法与回归分析法,有序开展耕地资源数量变化驱动力分析,最后,提出一些推进新型城镇化建设的对策建议,以期为合肥市社会经济的持续、健康发展提供参考。

How to scientifically coordinate the relationship between regional economic develop-ment and arable land resources protection has always been the real issue of investigating local administrative decision-making capacity and concept of development.As China has entered the decisive phase of building a moderately prosperous society,the enhancement of industrialization and urbanization that has the demand for development space is bound to have a significant impact on the protection of arable land resources.By taking the typical region Hefei City whose urbani-zation increases rapidly as subject,the system analyzes Hefei's urbanization and cultivated land changes based on the city's data changes of cultivated land resources and statistical data of socio-economic development from the period of 1990 to 2010,at the same time,combined with actual situation of arable land resource changes,it scientifically chooses eight socio-economic development factors that can effectively reflect the status of urbanization as indicators,and a prin-cipal component analysis and regression analysis are integratedly used to analyze the quantity changes of cultivated land and driving forces orderly.Finally,some countermeasures and pro-posals are put forward for promoting the urbanization construction to provide a reference for sustained and healthy development of social economy in Hefei City.