福建省流通产业碳排放影响因素实证研究——基于Tapio弹性脱钩理论和LMDI分解法

Empirical study of factors on circulation industry carbon emission in Fujian Province according to Tapio elastic decoupling theory and by LMDI Analysis

通过构建弹性脱钩模型探究福建省流通产业碳排放脱钩的动态演变过程。结果表明,福建省流通产业的发展未表现出显著的碳排放脱钩趋势,脱钩状态大致呈现"弱脱钩-扩张性耦合-扩张性负脱钩"的阶段性特征,存在复钩的可能。同时,结合LMDI分解项进一步发现:(1)流通产业的经济增长弹性对碳排放脱钩具有正向影响效应,是引致碳排放增长和限制流通产业碳排放脱钩的主导因素;(2)流通产业的能源结构相对稳定,对于产业低碳转型的影响尚未显现;(3)流通产业能源利用效率波动明显,对流通产业碳排放脱钩的影响较大,但同时也是抑制碳排放的关键要素。基于此,从制定合理的产业发展规模、优化能源结构、提高能源利用效率、发展碳合作市场等方面提出对策建议。

The dynamic evolution process of carbon emission decoupling in circulation industry in Fujian Province is explored through construction of elastic decoupling model. The results indicate as follows. The development of circulation industry in Fujian Province has not displayed obvious trend of carbon emission decoupling,and the decoupling state presents ＂ weak decoupling-expansive coupling-expansive negative decoupling＂,with possibility of re-coupling. Calculation by LMDI decomposition demonstrates as follows.（ 1） The elasticity of economic growth in circulation industry has a positive effect on carbon emission decoupling,and is the dominant factor causing carbon emission increasing and hindering carbon emission decoupling in circulation industry.（ 2） The energy structure of circulation industry is relatively stable and its effect on low-carbon transformation of the industry has not been discovered yet.（ 3） Energy use efficiency of circulation industry fluctuates remarkably and its effect on carbon emission decoupling in circulation industry is large,while it is the key factor to restrain carbon emission. Accordingly the countermeasures are proposed to work out rational industry development scale,optimize energy structure,increase energy use efficiency,and to develop carbon cooperation market.