基于总供求模型的中国未来经济增长动力探析

Analysis of China' s Future Economic Growth Motivation Based on the Total Supply and Demand Model

经济增长动力的分析可以从供给和需求两个侧面进行,从供给角度出发,经济增长取决于人力和非人力的投入以及影响投入要素使用效率的因素[Y=AS=AF(L,K)=F(C,S)];从需求角度看,经济增长是由投资需求与消费需求所决定[Y=AD=F(C,I)]。经济均衡发展的关键是I=S以及投入后的产出被市场的各种需求所消化。以此模型出发结合中国的实际,可以得出:有供给和需求作保障的投资仍然是我国未来经济增长的强大动力;消费需求对未来经济增长的动力作用潜力巨大;通过技术进步推动经济增长将越来越成为一种主要动力;通过"一带一路"战略的实施,外部需求仍将成为我国经济增长的重要力量。因此,我国经济在未来相当长时期内仍然可以保持较快的增长速度。我们既要对经济发展前景充满信心,又要通过相应的战略和政策措施使经济增长潜力变为现实。

Analysis of economic growth can be done from both supply and demand aspects. From the perspective of supply,economic growth depends on human and non-human inputs and factors influencing efficient use of inputs [Y = AS = AF（ L,K） =F（ C,S） ]. From the perspective of demand,economic growth is determined by the investment demand and consumption demand[Y = AD = F（ C,I） ]. The key to the balanced development of the economy is ＂I = S＂and the digestion of input-output by the various demands of the market. Based on this model,combined with the realities in China,we can conclude that supply and demand for security investment is still a strong driving force of economic growth in our country in the future. The consumer demand has great potential dynamic function for the future economic growth. Relying on technological progress to promote economic growth will become a kind of main engine. By implementing Strategy of ＂One Belt and One Road ＂ external demand will become the most important promoting force of China＇ s economic growth. Therefore,the economy of our country can still maintain rapid growth for a long period of time in the future. According to the above judgments,we should have confidence in the perspective of economic development and should also formulate and adopt corresponding strategies and policies to make economic growth potential into reality.