基于门槛面板模型的服务业的本土市场效应研究

Study on the Home Market Effect of Service Industry Based on the Threshold Model

本文利用中国与23个OECD国家2000—2012年的双边贸易面板数据进行实证检验,结果显示:扩大市场需求规模能够提高服务业出口贸易量。通过进一步研究发现,(1)整体而言,服务业不具有本土市场效应,因为服务业出口的国内需求弹性小于国外需求弹性;(2)将国内需求作为门槛变量后,服务业显示出本土市场效应,即国内需求达到门槛值之后,服务业具有本土市场效应,相反,国内需求达到门槛值之前,服务业不具有本土市场效应。因此,积极地实施扩大内需战略,促使国内需求达到门槛点,有助于发挥服务业的本土市场效应。

With the expansion of demand,the exports of goods increase.Does the export of service have the same behavior？To solve this problem,the article uses the bilateral trade panel date of 24 countries including China from2000 to 2012to conduct an empirical study.And the results show that the expansion of market scale can promote export of service industry.However,with regard to whether the service industry has the home market effect or not,this paper finds that（1）as a whole,the service sector does not have the home market effect because of the lower elasticity of demand in domestic market compared with foreign market;（2）the service industry has the home market effect after choosing domestic demand as the threshold variable,i.e.the service industry has the home market effect after domestic demand reaches the threshold value.Therefore,it is significant to actively implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand because it helps domestic demand reach the threshold point so that the service industry may have the home market effect.