京津风沙源治理区植被变化的可持续性分析

Persistence in vegetation cover changes in Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Region

利用京津风沙源治理区1982—2011年的GIMMS/NDVI3g数据集,对治理区植被变化的可持续性进行定量分析.结果表明:(1)归一化植被指数(NDVI)时间变化方面,2001—2011年间研究区植被整体上呈增加趋势,4大分区植被增速存在区域差异;(2)NDVI变化的可持续性方面,2001—2011年间整个研究区植被变化呈现出显著的长期持续性特征,且存在明显的时空差异,自2000年治理工程实施以来,治理区植被明显恢复,一期工程成效显著,但局部地区植被仍在持续减少,因此有必要进行二期工程以巩固和提高一期工程的成果,进一步改善环境;(3)NDVI变化趋势的未来持续时间方面,整个治理区植被的未来变化状况不容乐观,4大分区中农牧交错带沙化土地治理区植被的未来发展趋势优于其他3个治理区,工程治理效果也相对较好.

Based on the GIMMS/NDVI3 g data set of Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Region from 1982 to 2011,the persistence in vegetation cover changes in this region was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that ：（1）As for the temporal variation of normalized difference vegetation index（NDVI）,the vegetation showed an increasing trend on the whole in Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Region from 2000 to 2011. And there were regional differences in the vegetation growth rate among four regions;（2） As for the persistence in NDVI changes,the vegetation changes in the whole study area showed significant long-time persistence characteristics,and there were obvious differences in time and space for the persistence from 2000 to 2011. Since the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project was implemented from 2000,the vegetation in the study area had significantly restored and the first phase project had achieved remarkable results. But the vegetation in some areas still continued decreasing. So it is necessary to adopt the second phase project to consolidate and enhance the construction effect of the first phase project,and further improve the environment;（3）As for the future duration of NDVI change trends,the vegetation future change situation was not optimistic on the whole. In the four sandstorm source control regions,the vegetation future change trends and the project treatment effect in the pastoral transitional zone desertified land control region were better than those in the other three sandstorm source control regions.