国际投资流动、储备资产和全球失衡——基于非均衡国际货币体系的视角

International Investment Flows,Reserve Assets,and Global Imbalances——Based on the Perspective of Disequilibrium of the International Monetary System

全球失衡是当前全球经济发展面临的重要挑战。从非均衡国际货币体系的角度,从理论分析和实证验证两个纬度探究外汇储备、私人投资流动和国际储备资产需求等因素对不同国家经常项目均衡的影响。构建的跨国资产组合模型发现储备货币持有国的官方储备和外部私人投资流入对经常项目均衡有负效应,储备货币需求对储备货币提供国的经常项目也是负影响。使用1989—2013年58个储备货币持有国数据和1995—2011年7个储备货币供应国数据进行实证分析进一步验证了该结论。解决全球失衡问题,改变当前的非均衡国际货币体系势在必行。

Global imbalance is an important challenge for the development of the global economy, and different scholars have made different explanations to the imbalance of global economy. From the point of view of the disequilibrium of the international monetary system and from the two angles of theoretical analysis and empirical verify, this thesis studied the foreign exchange reserves, private investment flow and international reserve asset demand, and other factors on different countries＇ current-account balance. Cross-border asset portfolio model constructed in this paper found that the official currency reserves and external private investment in{lows both have negative effect on current account balance; reserve currency demand for reserve currencies to the providers of the current account is negative. This paper further carried on empirical analysis to verify this conclusion by using the data of 58 countries that hold reserve currencies during 1989-2013 and the data of 7 suppliers of reserve currencies during 1995-2011. This paper argues that it is imperative to solve the problem of global imbalances, and to change the current unbalanced international monetary system.