生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚是否能促进经济增长——基于中国285个地级市的面板数据

Can Co-agglomeration between Producer Services and Manufactures Promote the Urban Economic Growth?——Based on the Panel Data of China's 285 Cities

以2003—2012年中国285个地级市为样本,利用面板数据门限回归模型,实证研究了生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚对不同规模城市经济增长的门限效应。结果表明:协同集聚对城市经济增长存在双重门限效应。当城市规模小于23.004万时,协同集聚对城市经济增长表现出明显抑制作用;当城市规模处于23.004万和199.996万之间时,两个产业间的互补效应逐渐显现,城市经济也从协同集聚中获得好处;当城市规模大于199.996万时,受资源、环境等条件限制,协同集聚对城市经济显示出一定抑制作用。

This paper takes city scale as the threshold variable and establishes a threshold regression model. Then it makes an empirical study on the threshold effect of co-agglomeration between producer services and manufactures on the urban economic growth, based on the panel data of China＇s 285 cities from 2003 to 2012. Afterwards, it makes three sample regressions with the dynamic GMM estimation method. The key results indicate as follows： Firstly, there exist double threshold values between the co-agglomeration and the urban economic growth. Secondly, the coagglomeration impedes the economic growth when the urban scale is less than 0. 23004 million; when the urban scale is between 0. 23004 million and 1. 99996 million, the co-agglomeration have a significant positive influence on the urban economy; and the co-agglomeration may inhibits the economic growth to some extent when the urban scale is greater than 1. 99996 million.