分税制与中国宏观经济波动——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的实证分析

Tax-Sharing System And the Macroeconomic Fluctuation in China——An Empirical Analysis Based on New-Keynesian DSGE Models

本文在新凯恩斯主义框架下,从中国经济实际出发,充分考虑国税及地税政策,构建了我国分税制下的DSGE模型,研究了宏观经济波动的税收政策效应。研究发现:国税政策的正向冲击短期内会挤出家庭劳动、降低资产收益率,对经济增长有一定的负效应;地税政策的正向冲击效应恰好相反,短期内具有促进就业、刺激经济增长和抑制通货膨胀的作用;宏观经济对地税政策冲击更为敏感,中国更应该发挥地税政策调控宏观经济运行的作用。本文的研究为新一轮税制改革提供了方向正确性的理论佐证及具体操作的量化参考。

Within the framework of New-Keynesian Economics,this paper,taking both national and local tax polices in China into full consideration,applies DSGE Models to analyze the tax-sharing system and studies the impact of tax policies on macroeconomic fluctuation in China. The results show that the direct impact of national tax policies will reduce the output and restrain excessive economic growth in the short term. On the contrary,the direct impact of local tax policies will create more jobs,boost economic growth and restrain inflation in the short run. In addition,the macro-economy is more sensitive to the direct impact of local tax policies. Therefore,local tax policies should play a greater role in the macroeconomic regulation. This paper provides theoretical evidence for the direction of the new round of tax reform and the quantitative reference for specific operation.