产业关联视角下北京市交通运输业经济效应测算研究

Study on the function of transportation to economy in Beijing based on connection between industries

交通运输业对国民经济的带动效应源于两个方面,一是交通运输业本身发展对经济所产生的直接经济效应,二是交通运输业发展带动相关产业发展对经济所产生的间接经济效应。文章以关联系数描述了交通运输业与其相关产业的关联关系,并运用关联系数、增长值贡献率模型,测度了北京市交通运输业对国民经济的拉动和推动效应。研究认为,任何一个产业经济效应的大小不仅取决于其直接经济效应,也取决于其间接经济效应。经济效应的大小取决于其在产业链中的位置、与其他支柱产业的关联程度和与其他支柱产业的产业距离。产业位置靠前,其拉动效应小于推动效应,产业位置靠后,其拉动效应大于推动效应。交通运输业作为基础产业,其产业位置相对靠前,其前向推动效应大于其后向拉动效应。

The promoting function of transportation to national economy generates from two sources, the one is the direct function to economy coming from the development of transportation itself, and the other is the indirect function to economy coming from the development of connecting industries because of the transportation growth. This paper uses the connection coefficients to describe the connection between the transportation and its connected industries, and uses the connection coefficients and contribution ratio of growth value to calculate the pulling and pushing function from the transportation to the national economy for Beijing. The research conclusion is that economic function from any industry depends on not only the size of its direct function to economy, but also its indirect function to economy. The size of function to economy depends on its position in the industrial chain, the connecting degree with pillar industries and the distance from transportation to pillar industries. If its position is in front of others, the pulling function is smaller than its pushing function, if it is in behind of others, the pushing function is greater than its pulling function. As a basic industry, the position of transportation is in front of other industries relatively, so its forward pushing function is larger than its backward pulling function.