中国最优利率规则探讨

Research on optimal interest rate rule in China

文章构造了一个开放经济下的混合型AD-AS模型,并根据中国2002年至2013年的统计数据对其进行了估计,分析和比较了三种目标制下的最优货币政策,以利率为政策工具,利用动态最优化方法求出了中国的最优利率规则。通过计算与分析,得到如下结论:利率平滑目标制下的货币规则更适合中国,长期而言,该规则能有效控制产出缺口和通货膨胀,并且保持利率变化的平稳,具有良好的可行性和操作性,有助于中国宏观经济和社会的稳定。

This paper structures and estimates an open economy mixed AD- AS model based on statistics from2002 to 2013 in China, analyzes and compares the optimal monetary policies among three targets, taking interest as policy instrument, deduces the optimal interest rate rule in China with dynamic optimization method. As a result of analysis and calculation, we get the following conclusion： The optimal monetary policy of interest rate smoothing target is more propitious to China, the corresponding optimal interest rate rule could effectively control both of output gap and inflation in the long term, and possess well both of feasibility and operability, this rule could contribute to stabilization of macro economy and society in China.